Factors Associated with Successful United Nations Peacekeeping Missions

Abstract

Peacekeeping is an essential component of the United Nations’ contributions to fulfill its core mission of maintaining international peace and security. UN peacekeeping missions (PKMs) are Security Council (SC) approved interventions in areas of conflict. The intensity of these missions ranges from observation to enforcement. Much has been written about the success or failure of these missions, but quantification of success and examination of the factors associated with success are missing from the literature. This research examines 69 PKMs between 1945 and 2013 in an attempt to identify characteristics of the mission, known at the time of the Security Council vote on the missions, that are associated with the success of the missions. The data collected for the study include information on the SC concerns about the conflict, the mandate purposes, the authorized UN personnel, the mission level of intensity, the global region of the conflict, the time era, and other details of the mission. This information was statistically analyzed to identify factors that are associated with success and also with secondary outcomes of UN personnel fatalities and the duration of the PKM. Additional analyses were performed that included factors known during the PKM such as mandate expansion, timeline extension, and the actual deployed UN personnel during the course of the PKM. The PKMs were successful in 30 (43%) of the 69 missions. The success rate has declined over time (61% prior to 1990 to 31% after 2000), is lower in enforcement missions (26%), and missions that have a purpose of humanitarian relief (31%). If the mandate was expanded during the course of the PKM, then the success rate is lower (36%). As the duration of the PKM increases, the rate of success decreases (PKMs with a duration longer than 10 years have a success rate of 17%). This research also found that the PKMs have evolved over time: they now have more mandate components, more enforcement missions, and more UN personnel. Factors associated with an increased number of UN personnel fatalities include the recent time era, enforcement missions, the number of UN deployed personnel, and the extended duration of the mission. Factors associated with an increase in duration include the regions of the Middle East and Europe, a purpose of maintaining a ceasefire, and expansion of the mandate. Successful PKMs are a major challenge for the Security Council. As the SC considers a new PKM, their understanding of the factors associated with success, fatalities, and duration may assist them in evaluating the risks of a mission and in allocating the necessary resources to increase the probability of success while minimizing fatalities and the mission duration.