First Year Engineering Student Persistence Through Key Academic and Non-Academic Indicators

Abstract

This dissertation investigates the persistence of first-year engineering students at a large Southeastern research university, focusing on the interplay of academic and nonacademic indicators that predict retention and attrition. Grounded in Chickering’s Theory of College Student Development and informed by Tinto’s Student Integration Model, the study explores how developmental readiness, academic performance, and institutional engagement shape student outcomes in engineering programs.

Utilizing a quantitative, non-experimental design, the research analyzes archival institutional data from 8,879 first-year engineering students enrolled between 2015 and 2024. Key variables include high school GPA, ACT scores, AP math credit, first-term GPA, math grades, credit completion, and participation in engineering (ENGR) courses. Logistic regression and bivariate analyses reveal that pre-college academic achievement—particularly high school GPA, ACT scores, and AP math credit—are powerful predictors of first-year retention. Each one-point increase in high school GPA and ACT score significantly raises the odds of persistence, while AP math credit more than doubles retention likelihood.

First-term academic performance, especially in gateway math courses, emerges as a critical gatekeeper: students earning A or B grades in math are much more likely to persist, while D or F grades signal elevated attrition risk. Credit momentum, measured by the gap between attempted and completed hours, is the strongest predictor of retention into the second year. Engineering course enrollment in the first fall semester also substantially boosts ongoing persistence.

Subgroup analyses indicate that while females earn higher GPAs, males show slightly higher adjusted retention odds in the first year; however, gender differences diminish by the second year. AP credit and Engineering engagement remain robust predictors across subgroups. The findings underscore the importance of early academic success, structured engagement, and targeted interventions—such as proactive advising and mentoring—to support at-risk students.

This study provides actionable insights for academic administrators and support services, advocating for data-driven early warning systems and holistic retention strategies that align with students’ developmental and academic needs. Recommendations for future research include examining interaction effects, longitudinal outcomes, and the role of psychosocial factors in engineering student persistence.